Ireland would have arrived in New Zealand quietly confident of getting their first ever test win on Kiwi soil, perhaps even dreaming of a ground-breaking series triumph. The size of their task would have been underscored by the resounding victory achieved by the Maori All Blacks on Wednesday, albeit against an Ireland team who will do well just to get near the starting XV for the remainder of the test series. The Irish could not cope with the Maoris attacking threat on the counter attack and it is bound to be a precursor for the Test series, with the All Blacks looking to attack from broken field if they are given time and space.
The Leinster side, which is basically the Irish test side, lost two knockout games this season, to end the campaign trophyless for the first time in a number of years. Their defeats came in similar fashion – against massive, bruising packs and a brilliant kick-chase game. The key to Irish success in recent times has been their rapid ruck speed and then ball out the back with myriad options for Sexton. Against both La Rochelle and the Bulls, they were hammered in the scrum and didn’t win the first collision, thereby stymying their ruck speed and nullifying their attacking threat. La Rochelle outscored them 3 tries to nil in the Heineken Champions Cup and the Bulls beat them in Dublin through brilliant kick chase and first up tackles, as well as achieving set piece dominance.
What makes this series interesting is the fact that NZ won’t play the way that La Rochelle and the Bulls did, it is just not in their DNA.
Ireland’s confidence for the series will stem from having won 3 of the last 5 matches against the All Blacks, including an impressive win in November in Dublin. The All Blacks have suffered from their only external club competition coming from Australia in the last two years. This negative impact can be seen by the number of losses in recent years against the likes of Australia, Argentina, Ireland and France. It is telling that even John Kirwan thinks the All Blacks are underdogs for the first test. That being said, underestimating an All Black side playing at home is a very dangerous game. They will be keen to correct the defeats against Ireland and France in their last two tests of 2021 and they return to their fortress to start a gruelling 2022.
The first test is taking place at Eden Park, where the All Blacks are unbeaten for 28 years! This could be a crucial factor in mentality for both sides, with history looming large in the key test of the series.
It will be a settled (and cohesive) Irish team that takes on a NZ team in transition, only 15 months out from RWC 2023 and who are still working out who their best XV is.
The All Blacks have retained Sam Cane as their captain, in a familiar back 5 in the forwards including Ardie Savea and Scott Barrett in the loose forwards and Retallick and Whitelock in the second row. The battle in the front row will be intriguing and Ireland will feel they can get the better of the Kiwis here. The All Blacks have gone for Beauden Barrett instead of Richie Mo’unga at flyhalf, with Barrett’s other brother, Jordie, likely to take the kicking duties from fullback. There is no Will Jordan in the backline, nor David Havili, two stars for NZ and Rieko Ioane could be exposed at 13, a position which has more nuance than simply being an ‘athlete’.
Ireland’s team is so settled and it barely changes from week to week. The one curious selection is Peter O’Mahony at blindside in a reshuffle that sees Caelan Doris move to No. 8 in place of Jack Conan, who is only on the bench. The battle at the breakdown between Cane and van der Flier should be worth keeping an eye on. Van der Flier was named man of the tournament for the Heineken Cup, whilst I believe Cane to be incredibly overrated. James Ryan will look to disrupt the NZ lineout and the scrums will be interesting to see who gets ascendancy.
The Irish centres, Henshaw and Ringrose could be looking forward to exposing Tupaea and Ioane if they get front foot ball and Sexton and Gibson-Park will look to control the game with the boot. After the torrid time Earls had in keeping tabs on Shaun Stevenson in the Maori game, Leicester Fainga’anuku will be licking his lips at the chance to run over the diminutive Irishman.
The game could well be decided by the respective benches, where the All Blacks clearly have the upper hand. It is astounding that Ireland have gone for Heffernan and not Herring on the bench at hooker and Cian Healy cannot be 100% fit after sustaining injury on Wednesday. Bundee Aki will have a point to prove off the bench. If Ireland are to win, they will have to take away time and space from the All Blacks by a good kick-chase and then when they get the ball they can stretch the Kiwis in the wide channels with their exciting backline.
That being said, there are a lot of “ifs” in there and NZ should have enough at the start and finish to see off the Irish threat and maintain their incredible record at Eden Park. I believe NZ will win the first two and then in experimental selections for the third test, Ireland may finish off the series on a high.
Series Prediction: 2 – 1 to New Zealand