What an atmosphere will greet both teams on a crisp Highveld winter’s afternoon on Saturday! The capacity crowd which will be at Loftus has been well documented and they are sure to play a massive role in energising the Boks in a match they are heavily favoured to win, and win comfortably.
This will be a huge learning curve for a number of the Welsh players who will not have experienced an environment as hostile as this for many years, taking into account the havoc that COVID has caused.
Wales have never won a test in South Africa, and whilst Sam Warburton reckons they have a chance of getting A win here during this series, that appears to be rather far-fetched. That being said, there probably won’t be a big blowout as many are predicting, but the Boks should have far too much firepower up front for Wales to stay in the fight for a full 80 minutes. The first test could be the toughest for Wales, for the following reasons:
- Vociferous crowd in the Loftus bearpit;
- playing at altitude; and
- players having not played for a while and some returning from injury.
The Boks coaching staff have resisted some calls to pick players who have been excellent in the URC, including Deon Fourie and Evan Roos, but that was perhaps fanciful. This team is still building from having had so long without time together and these coaches prefer a settled team and it should give the fans some comfort knowing that the players have done it before and can always be relied upon. Let us never forget the character shown in coming back from 1 – 0 down to beat the Lions last year after a year without playing.
In Wales’s last game, a shock defeat at home to Italy, they picked a team high on sentiment. They have been a bit more ruthless this time, dropping AWJ to the bench and giving Tommy Reffell his first cap in place of regular openside Josh Navidi. Reffell thoroughy deserves his call up, having been excellent in a Tigers Premiership-winning campaign. This is the one concern for the Boks, Wales’s ability to jackal, especially with Dan Lydiate in the side, one of the best ‘chop’ tacklers in the game. That being said, the Boks won’t be playing touch rugby so this threat may be negated somewhat, especially when the Bok bench gets unloaded with perennial jackallers in Kitshoff, Marx and Kwagga running on.
In a bid to demonstrate why South Africa should win all three tests, here is a head-to-head across the park, with some alternative viewpoints to keep an eye on. As per usual the Boks have gone with a 6/2 split on the bench, making it clear what type of game they will continue to play.
Front Row
The Boks have the best two front rows in the world and the personnel is interchangeable, losing nothing in quality, fight and determination. On a hard field, they will look to scrum for penalties and thereafter play field position and use their imperious lineout maul. Ox and Malherbe are focussed on their primary duties, scrumming and lifting in the lineout and few are better around the world. Mbonambi brings real mongrel to the pack and I am looking forward to this pack going to work after Bongi’s “laat die fokken honde los” plea in the changeroom.
Wales on the other hand have left perhaps their strongest scrummagers (Tomas Francis and AWJ) on the bench, and by the time they get on the Welsh pack may well be demoralised. I CANNOT wait for the first, and actually every scrum! The Welsh starting front row will have their work cut out at the set piece, let’s see if they can rise to the challenge.
Second Row
Eben Etzebeth has been in good form for Toulon, dominating in their semi-final Challenge Cup win over Saracens (and Itoje the Annoying). His physicality cannot be replicated and he is joined by Lood de Jager who is always at least an 8 out of 10, and will be fresh having not featured too often for Sale this season. The lineouts will be a good battle, but the Boks should get the better of Wales here.
The big news from the Wales camp is that AWJ will only play from the bench. At the risk of being cancelled, or losing credibility amongst the Twitterverse, I think he is incredibly overrated despite his longevity and ‘legend’ status in the game. A lot of what he does goes unseen but I cannot ever recall him having a demonstrative game, either for the Lions or Wales. I would argue that the reason for his record number of caps is that the depth for Wales is weak, rather than him being some generational talent.
Will Rowlands has been in good form, winning the Player of the Year award from the Welsh Rugby Writers Association, and was controversially dropped for AWJ in the Italy debacle. Adam Beard partners him and for the life of me I cannot work out how he was made a Lion. All the better for us Bok fans I guess. He may have long arms and will look to disrupt our maul but all the best to him!
Loose Forwards
This is perhaps the one area of concern, with the Boks not picking an out-and-out openside in the side, instead going for as big a pack as possible with ‘Sous’ Mostert coming in on the blindside. This will add to the Bok lineout options. Jasper Wiese may have been under some pressure from Roos and Louw due to their form in the URC, but he answered any doubters by scoring a try and winning the man-of-the-match in the Premiership final. He was immense and the sight of him running at Dan Biggar gives one goosebumps.
Wales have a good back row, with Faletau a world class No. 8 on his day, even if he is perhaps past his best. Lydiate and Reffell as a combination will be key to Wales stopping the Bok momentum with Lydiate’s dominant tackling and Reffell’s ability on the ground to be a limpet on the ball. This area is perhaps fairly even.
Halfbacks
Faf de Klerk is joined in the halfbacks by controversial Elton Jantjies, who has literally been banging on the door for a starting berth. #toosoon. Jantjies’s talent is not in doubt, what is in doubt is his ability to control a game at test level and limit his frustrating errors like not finding touch from penalties and missing easy kicks at goal.
Kieran Hardy starts at scrumhalf for Wales and he is combative and will need to be around the fringes against this Bok side. Dan Biggar was the Lions 10 and is a key part of his side, both at club and country. It will be interesting to see if he looks to kick as much as he did for the Lions or if he will give the ball air and get the backline going, considering the pace they have on the outside. Biggar’s defence is sure to be tested.
Centres
The Bok centres are classy and have been so for a number of years. In de Allende, we have an inside centre who is not just a battering ram, but an excellent defender and jackal threat. Lukhanyo Am may be one of the best rugby players in the world. He has all the tricks, as well as a great communicator in marshalling the backline defence. His combination with Mapimpi and Kolbe is always electric.
They come up against a man who has developed the annoying habit of whooping and running into the forwards every time his club win a scrum penalty or turnover in Nick Tompkins. I don’t see him having much opportunity to perform these theatrics this tour, and if he does he will meet some serious resistance. His battle with de Allende is gonna be a great watch. George North has had a long period on the sidelines and his rustiness could well be exposed by the genial Bok backline. He is a flat track bully and this Bok side are unlikely to take a backward step for him.
Outside Backs
Damian Willemse starts his first test match in South Africa and no one is more deserving of a place in the side. He was excellent for the Stormers throughout the URC and his efforts in coming back from injury for the semi-final and MOTM performance against Ulster shows the steel AND quality of the man. He is an inspired choice, with Willie having not been at his best for a while now. The Bok wings speak for themselves. Mapimpi and Kolbe with ball in hand would frighten any defence, and they come up against two wings for Wales not exactly known for their tigerish defence. Mapimpi vs Rees-Zammit could be ‘bus is full’ stuff. I really hope we get to see this one-on-one battle.
Adams and Rees-Zammit are good finishers, if there is no one in front of them. This will seldom be the case in the next three test matches. Both had a disappointing Lions tour and may well be motivated to make better memories of SA, good luck to them! Liam Williams must be dreading returning to SA. He was dealt to by an enraged SA ‘A’ side on the Lions tour and after getting smashed three times in the first 20 minutes thought, nah, this probably isn’t for me. I expect his nightmare to recur on Saturday.
Front Row (bench)
The Boks front row on the bench could be aggrieved at not starting, but this will just fire them up to continue what the starters are bound to do. The different skillset they bring adds an extra dimension in the second half. The amazing thing about the Bok front row reserves is that they also bring a jackal threat to add to their power game, and Koch has even been setting up tries in the 13 channel for Sarries. Tomas Francis is a decent scrummager but the damage may well have been done by the time he gets on. That is unless we get some of their front row off early a la RWC 2019 semi final!
Second Row (bench)
There literally cannot be a bigger disparity in test experience between Salmaan Moerat and AWJ. The most experienced test rugby player ever against the promising Stormers lock who is due to make his test debut. Both players are good scrummagers and Moerat will be pumped coming on in front of a packed house for his test bow. AWJ will add experience but it may be too little too late.
Loose Forwards (bench)
The Boks have two loosies on the bench in Elrigh Louw (another potential debutant) and Kwagga Smith. It is an inspired choice to pick Louw for Loftus, his home ground, on debut and hopefully Evan Roos will get his chance in Cape Town in the third test. Louw has been great in the URC and deserves a chance and Kwagga is always energetic and effervescent. His jackal potential could be important against Josh Navidi who is the Welsh back row replacement. Navidi hasn’t played much recently, but is all action and his spark will be important for the Welsh at altitude against a bruising Bok pack.
Utility Backs (bench)
Herschel Jantjies and Willie le Roux have perhaps not been in the best of form recently for the Boks but their body of work means they were always going to be selected for the squad. Jantjies has been ponderous at the breakdown for the Stormers and hopefully he can speed up his distribution (he was caught at the base a number of times in the URC). Le Roux has been replaced by Willemse who will be playing somewhat out of position, having played 12 for the Stormers for the end of the URC campaign. Even Gelant is a better option from fullback, his ability to kick off both feet keeps the wings pinned back to guard against the 50/22 and his running and offload game is amazing to watch. Willie will need to take his chance off the bench. Wales have solid players in Williams, Anscombe and Watkin, but nothing that would terrify an international backline with the quality we possess.
Series Prediction: 3 – 0 to South Africa