Out of the three main Southern Hemisphere series, this is perhaps the most difficult to predict. Both sides are in transition and looking to develop a playing style before RWC 2023. The last time England were in Australia, they smashed the Wallabies in a 3 – 0 whitewash. Nauseatingly, this series was reviewed in excruciating detail by man of the series James Haskell on The Good, The Bad, The Rugby podcast earlier this week. England are in a different place this time around. In 2016, they had come off a Grand Slam in the Six Nations, whereas now they have had two disappointing Six Nations campaigns and an England side was given 50 by a Baabaas team who had been getting pissed in Monaco for a week before the game. The team for the first test is vastly different from that side however, and should be looking forward to playing an Australian side who they have an excellent recent record against, having won the last 8 matches between the two.
That being said, there is significant pressure on Eddie Jones owing to the last two Six Nations campaigns and this series is crucial for their build up to next year’s World Cup in France. The naming of Courtney Lawes as captain instead of Owen Farrell has apparently led to anger from Farrell (hilariously), and if things don’t go England’s way, you can bet there will be dissention in the ranks, with Farrell sniping from the side, as he always does when things don’t go his way.
Australia under Dave Rennie somehow beat the Boks twice last year, and can point to a Brumbies side who did well against the NZ sides in Super Rugby Pacific. They have brought a few experienced players into the backline in the form of Cooper, Kerevi and Koroibete, to supplement the control which Nic White gives with his excellent kicking game from scrumhalf. The Australian pack has long been their Achilles’ heel and this could well be the case in this series too.
Jones has chopped and changed the English team a lot in recent times and for the first test he is going with a team full of pace, power and skill, with considerable leadership qualities up front. The return of Billy Vunipola and Jonny Hill is a clear sign that England are going to attack Australia in the forwards, Vunipola sure to hang back with Steward to counter Australia’s kicking game and will be used to batter Australia’s defence along with Genge. Much has been made of Australia’s maul potential with debutants Caderyn Neville and David Porecki brought into the pack, but there are 3 of the Saracens pack that so effectively blunted Leicester’s maul in the Premiership Final so this may be a dead end for the Wallabies. The Wallabies tight five is seriously undergunned and it would be a surprise if they got parity at the set piece. At the breakdown, Curry and Hooper will be key if the game gets loose in clearing the ruck and in winning turnovers which both backlines could exploit with ease.
In the backline, Jones appears to be backing Smith/Farrell at 10/12 and with Care and Marchant on either side of them, there is a strong Quins axis which should lead to cohesion in the English backline. England’s wings, Cokanasiga and Nowell, are powerful with ball in hand and any poor kicking by Australia is sure to be countered with feeling. As long as Quade Cooper is in the Aussie backline, they will always look to give the ball air. Kerevi is sure to run hard in Smith’s channel to test his defence and Farrell’s suspect technique could be exposed too. Australia’s outside backs are exciting with ball in hand and it will be interesting to see how they go against this English backline. The clash between the two scrumhalves could be key. Nic White’s kicking game has improved out of sight since his time at Exeter and he comes up against a rejuvenated Danny Care, who has been excellent for Quins for the last two seasons and who Eddie Jones reckons has matured immeasurably. Care will look to up the tempo and is a constant menace around the fringes.
Despite England’s recent woes, their pack should give them the edge across the series but there are bound to be twists and turns and these three matches should be great viewing when they open up. They are also at the perfect time to warm up for the Boks over the next three weeks!
Series Prediction: 2 – 1 to England
Boooo